The city of Salmon Arm’s economic study used to justify the need for big-box development is grossly flawed and misleading….

Reports vastly different
By Barb Brouwer, Salmon Arm Observer
May 11, 2010

Information being used to update Salmon Arm’s official community plan is seriously flawed, say several residents.

The group commissioned a methodological review of a recent Retail and Industrial Land Use Market Study and Impact Analysis prepared for the City of Salmon Arm by Urbanics Consultants of Vancouver.

‘I read the Urbanics study and personally thought it was seriously flawed,’ says Ian Wickett, a member of the group that includes David Askew, Louise Wallace, Don Sawyer and Bill Remphrey. ‘This study confirms my concerns that assumptions without basis, analysis without rigour and drastically wrong conclusions (are contained) in the Urbanics study.’

City staff and Urbanics report author Cody Matheson told the Observer in January the report was written without bias and represented the best data available at the time of its undertaking.

But Wickett takes issue with how some of the data was collected for the report which, he says, is being heavily relied upon in the OCP review to justify the need to provide land for big-box retailers along the Trans-Canada Highway.

‘This course is being pursued in the face of the OCP review survey in which only 37 per cent of respondents supported this measure,’ he says.

The new report, completed by Thomas Consultants Inc. (TCI), a major Vancouver retail development and consultant firm, contends that Urbanics’ use of provincial-level retail trade data gathered by Statistics Canada led to misleading trade-area spending estimates.

TCI examined trade-area-specific spending characteristics and found the Urbanics’ estimates, for example, are significantly misleading in a number of key retail categories, including apparel, footwear, electronics, home furnishings, home improvements, food and beverage, supermarkets, alcohol, tobacco and services, Wickett says.

Calculations of retail dollars spent outside the community are also misleading, according to the Thomas Consultants report.

One of the worst distortions is that Urbanics ignored much of the grocery floor space, Wickett adds, estimating out-of-town spending in the grocery category to be $54 million ‘ a full 250 per cent higher than the Thomas Consultants’ figure of $21 million.

‘The estimate of $216 million of yearly outflow means, on average, given our regional population of 34,500, a household of four would spend approximately $25,000 after tax dollars,’ says Wallace, maintaining Urbanics’ numbers themselves reveal the report’s flaws. ‘We know from the latest census data that the median after-tax income in 2005 for a census of all families in this region is only $49,172, leaving a mere $2,000 per month for all expenses combined, including transportation, housing, utilities and insurance. It just doesn’t add up.’

Since recapturing money local people spend outside this trading area was key to Urbanics’ argument that large-format stores are needed in Salmon Arm, Wallace, Wickett and the other group members say exposure of the ‘huge overestimate,’ debunks Urbanics rather rosy analysis of the impact on existing businesses.

‘If a large format retail store were to be successful in Salmon Arm, many local businesses would be affected disastrously for many years to come,’ says Wickett.

The Thomas Consultants review concludes there are sufficient deficiencies in the consultant’s retail outflow and impact analyses to warrant re-examination.

‘It is important to note that TCI is not opposed to any retail format including large retail format, and sees considerable value in weaving an appropriately scaled mix of various formats into a community in locations which will help to increase its overall appeal, retain healthy spending and ultimately complement existing retail concentrations,’ reads the review’s conclusion. ‘That being said, it is important for municipal decision-making to be informed by the best possible retail market information and associated analysis and recommendations. Therefore, a re-examination of retail outflow by category and retail impact assessment which accounts for future supply considerations is highly recommended for Salmon Arm.’

The Thomas Consultants report was funded by donation.

To see the complete review visit www.wickettbusinessservices.com/reportreview